Cartography of invasion risk in the Atlantic Area and surrounding territories in Europe

Management strategies of invasive species can be aided by the development cartographies of invasion risk, which represent the probability of occurrence of the invasive species in non-invaded areas. This facilitates the prioritisation of monitoring resources as well as targeting eradication efforts towards high-risk areas.

Invasion risk cartographies are usually based on habitat suitability models (or Species Distribution Models, SDMs), which identify the limits of the environmental space occupied by the species and project them in the geographic space. This allows identifying regions with abiotic conditions that are favourable for the species, independently of whether the species lives there or not. Ideally, these cartographies should also take into account the dispersal ability of the invasive species, in order to identify the regions that can be reached from the invasion front in the short term.

Prediction of invasion risk for 2024 (1st year), 2025 (2nd year) and 2026 (3rd year), as inferred from models calibrated in 2023

Here we show two cartographies of the invasion risk of Vespa velutina in Europe in a 10km resolution grid. They have been developed using different algorithms that model the climatic suitability of the territories for the invasive species. Each cartography represents regions within the species climatic niche, as inferred with Bioclim models (“dark grey”). Overlaid, the probability of occurrence according to Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) or Maxent models is also shown. Additionally, the areas closer to the invasion front, and thus at higher invasion risk in the next years are also delimited in order to provide a dynamic estimation of invasion risk. The dispersal ability (or spreading rate) of the species is estimated in 47 km/year (average value from recent studies: Bertolino et al. 2016, Robinet et al. 2017, Verdasca et al. 2021).

For previous predictions based on a more restricted dataset, please follow this link.

Publications

Please have a look at the publications related with this action:

Formoso-Freire V., A.M. Barbosa, A. Baselga and C. Gómez-Rodríguez. 2023. Predicting the spatio-temporal pattern of range expansion under lack of equilibrium with climate. Biological Conservation 288, 110361. pdf

In this paper, we validate the use of different Species Distribution Models to predict the spatio-temporal pattern of range expansion of invasive species, using V. velutina as case study:

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References

  • Bertolino, S., Lioy, S., Laurinno, D., Manino, A. & Porporato, M. (2016). Spread of the invasive yellow-legged hornet Vespa velutina (Hymenoptera: Vespidae) in Italy. Applied Entomology and Zoology, 51 (4).

  • Robinet, C., Suppo, C. & Darrouzet, E. (2017). Rapid spread of the invasive yellow-legged hornet in France: the role of human-mediated dispersal and the effects of control measures. Journal of Applied Ecology, 54: 205-2015.

  • Verdasca, M.J., Rebelo, H., Carvalheiro, L.G. & Rebelo, R. (2021). Invasive hornets on the road: motorway-driven dispersal must be considered in management plans of Vespa velutina. NeoBiota, 69: 177-198.

    • More info

    EAPA_800/2018 - Atlantic-POSitiVE: Conservation of Atlantic pollination services and control of the invasive species Vespa velutina

    WP5: Development of tools to monitor V. velutina: environmental mapping, photographs and dynamic modelling

    Actions 4&5: Dynamic modeling service of V. velutina distribtuion in the Atlantic area (phases 1 and 2)

    Partner: Universidade de Santiago de Compostela (USC)